Yesterday, September 14, one of the strongest solar flares since 2017 was recorded.
The probability of a powerful magnetic storm on Monday-Tuesday is 53%.
This was reported by the Solar Astronomy Laboratory of the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
What is known about the powerful solar flare and will there be a magnetic storm
The flare occurred in active region #3825 on the eastern edge of the Sun. This region appeared on the Earth-facing side of the Sun only on September 13 and is quite small.
An explosion of such power here was completely unexpected, the scientists stated.
The outbreak had a magnitude of X4.5, making it the fifth strongest since 2017.
A hydrodynamic model of the plasma cloud suggests it will hit Earth with enormous kinetic energy on Monday.
Estimated speeds at the moment of impact are 900-1000 kilometers per second, gas density is up to 50 units.
This is comparable to the characteristics of the clouds that hit the Earth in May of this year and caused a level 5 magnetic storm.
For now, the forecast is cautious, at level 3, but, generally speaking, with such cloud parameters, anything can happen, the scientists noted.
However, since the impact is coming from the edge, a deviation from the calculated trajectory of 10-15 degrees is enough for the cloud to pass by our planet and not cause even weak disturbances.
Thus, two scenarios are possible. The first assumes an "apocalypse" on Monday-Tuesday with powerful storms and polar lights (53% probability), the second - a completely calm magnetosphere (47% probability).
The first scenario has been included in the final world forecasts. If it is realized, the first strike on Earth will be on September 16 at approximately 11:00 Moscow time.
The storm may last for about 30 hours, with the peak expected on the evening of September 16. The polar auroral zone will be in the eastern hemisphere, that is, over Russia.
